SOPR Ratio
Understand Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), adjusted variants, realised-profit interpretation and UTXO methodology limits.
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SOPR asks whether coins being spent are moving at prices above or below their modelled acquisition value, making it a flow-based realised-profit measure rather than a stock valuation measure.
What it measures
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) compares the value of spent outputs when they are spent with their value when they were created. If the ratio is above 1, qualifying coins were on average moved at a higher price than their inferred creation basis; below 1 indicates aggregate realised loss under the model.
Unlike MVRV, which is a stock measure of existing supply valuation, SOPR focuses on coins that actually moved during the period.
How the metric works
For each spent output, the model compares spend-time value with creation-time value and then aggregates across qualifying outputs. Providers may weight by value rather than treating every UTXO equally.
Very short-lived outputs can be operational churn rather than meaningful holder behaviour, which is why adjusted SOPR variants often remove outputs with lifespans below a threshold.
SOPR near 1 means aggregate spent value is close to the modelled basis of those outputs. Historical behaviour around 1 can be interesting, but “support” or “resistance” language should be treated as empirical observation rather than a protocol law.
Cohort variants such as long-term-holder SOPR and short-term-holder SOPR restrict the spent-output population. These can reveal different behaviours, but their age thresholds are provider-defined.
Methodology and interpretation
Check whether the metric is raw SOPR, adjusted SOPR, long-term-holder SOPR or another cohort variant. Each filter changes the economic population represented.
| Question | Why it matters | What to verify |
|---|---|---|
| Raw or adjusted? | Short-lived churn can dominate raw SOPR. | Lifespan filter and provider label. |
| Entity-adjusted? | Self-transfers can look like economic realisations. | Clustering methodology. |
| Value-weighted? | Large outputs may dominate the aggregate. | Aggregation method. |
| Which cohort? | LTH and STH variants answer different questions. | Age threshold and supply scope. |
Use SOPR with spent volume. A dramatic ratio on tiny spent volume may matter less than a modest deviation on a very large economically meaningful flow.
Destination context also helps. A high-SOPR movement into an identified exchange address can support a different interpretation from the same movement into a new self-custody wallet. Even then, an exchange deposit is not proof of an immediate sale.
Volume weighting deserves explicit attention: if a provider aggregates by economic value, a few large old outputs can dominate the period even while thousands of smaller holders behave differently. Inspect distribution or cohort data when available rather than assuming the aggregate ratio describes a typical holder.
Worked example
Suppose qualifying spent outputs had an aggregate creation-time value of £100 million and are spent when worth £112 million. SOPR = 1.12, indicating 12% aggregate realised gain under the model.
If another day shows SOPR 1.30 but only £5 million of spent value, while the first involved £500 million, the higher ratio is not automatically the more important event.
If many outputs are created and spent minutes later by exchange infrastructure, raw SOPR can become noisy. Filtering these short-lived outputs is the rationale for aSOPR.
Now imagine long-term-holder SOPR is 2.2 while short-term-holder SOPR is 0.92. Older coins are moving well above their modelled basis while younger coins are moving below theirs. The aggregate ratio could hide that divergence.
Common mistakes and misunderstandings
- Treating SOPR above 1 as a guaranteed sell signal.
- Ignoring spent-volume magnitude behind the ratio.
- Mixing raw SOPR with aSOPR or cohort variants.
- Assuming every UTXO spend represents a sale or change in beneficial ownership.
Practical workflow
- Identify the exact SOPR variant and lifespan or entity filters.
- Check spent-volume magnitude alongside the ratio.
- Compare with the asset’s own historical distribution and current regime.
- Use cohort SOPR only with clear age definitions.
- Treat persistent realised-profit or loss behaviour as evidence, not deterministic timing.
✅ Knowledge checkpoint
- Why is SOPR considered a flow metric rather than a stock metric?
- What problem does aSOPR attempt to reduce?
- Why should spent volume be examined alongside the ratio?
- How can self-transfers create false realised-profit signals?
FAQs
❓ What does SOPR above 1 mean?
Qualifying spent outputs moved at an aggregate value above their modelled creation value.
❓ What does SOPR below 1 mean?
Qualifying spent outputs were spent below their modelled creation value, indicating aggregate realised loss under the methodology.
❓ Why is SOPR mainly associated with Bitcoin?
Its UTXO model provides explicit coin creation and spend events that fit the calculation naturally.
❓ Is SOPR 1 a guaranteed support level?
No. Behaviour around 1 can be historically interesting, but it is not a mechanical market rule.
📋 Summary
SOPR measures realised profit or loss behaviour of coins that move. It is especially useful when combined with spent volume and clear filters, but UTXO churn, self-transfers and cohort methodology limit literal interpretation.
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